For most of April, the question around the Atlanta Braves was whether the rotation would hold together long enough for the team to make a serious run.
Through April 28, Braves starters had a 5.12 ERA — third-worst in the National League. The bullpen was no better. The team’s World Series odds, per FanGraphs, had dipped to 8.4 percent.
Six weeks later, those numbers look almost quaint.
Since May 1, Braves pitchers lead the National League in:
- ERA (2.81)
- Strikeouts (385)
- Opponent batting average (.212)
- Quality starts (32 of 43 starts)
The Braves’ rotation has gone from being a problem to being the best in the league.
What’s changed
Three things, in order of importance:
- The starting rotation got healthy. The team started the season without two of its expected top three starters. Both are back, and the depth is meaningful again.
- The bullpen is no longer overworked. A rebuilt late-inning group means the manager isn’t asking middle relievers to do setup work, and that has stabilized the whole staff.
- The catchers are stealing strikes. The Braves’ framing numbers are up significantly from last year, which is hard to see in box scores but has a measurable effect on pitcher effectiveness.
“You can have all the arms in the world, but if you’re not getting strike one and you’re not getting the borderline calls, your stuff has to be better than it is. We were getting behind in counts. We’re not anymore.”
— Braves pitching coach
The best five
The current rotation, in order:
- Spencer Strider — When he’s right, the best pitcher in the league. This year, he’s mostly been right.
- Chris Sale — Veteran lefty, still effective, still throwing 95+ in the late innings.
- Spencer Schwellenbach — Sophomore, the surprise of the staff.
- Bryce Elder — Back-of-the-rotation guy who has been much better than that.
- AJ Smith-Shawver — Top prospect, finally getting consistent innings.
That’s five legitimate major-league starters, which is more than most contenders have.
The concern
The thing is, the dog days of July and August are the test. Atlanta’s rotation has done this in a stretch of the schedule with relatively favorable matchups. The real question is whether the numbers hold against teams that have seen the pitchers multiple times.
There’s also the question of postseason pitching. The Braves have been bounced in the first round three of the last four years, and the bullpen — which is good now — has been the issue in October. Whether Brian Snitker trusts a 7th-inning arm in a tied game in the playoffs is a question the team has not yet had to answer.
The bigger picture
The Braves are 8.5 games back in the NL East as of Wednesday, and they have the second-best record in the National League since May 1. If the Mets and Phillies both fade even slightly, the Braves have a real shot at the division — and they have the starting pitching to be dangerous in a short series.
The trade deadline is July 31. The Braves have been buyers at the deadline in four of the last five years, and they have the prospect capital to add a reliever or a bench bat if they want to. The question is whether they think they can catch the Mets. If they do, the rotation they have right now is good enough to win any series.
“This is the rotation we expected to have. It’s finally here. Now we have to see if the rest of the team can hold up its end.”
— Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos, on a recent radio appearance
Jordan Reyes covers the Braves, Falcons, Hawks, Atlanta United, and Georgia high school sports for WACN 21. Reach him at jreyes@wacn21.com.